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THIS PAPER TAKES THE RELEVANCE OF PROBABILITY THEORY AND CONSIDERS THE ADDITIVE MODEL FROM PROBABILITY THEORY AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS THE MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL. THIS EXPANDED COVERAGE OF THEOREMS LEADS TO OPTIMISM ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPLEMENTATION, ENCOMPASSES REASONABLE TACTICS SUCH AS PERSISTENCE, AND POLICY REDUCTION, AND GENERATES ADVICE TO HOPEFUL IMPLEMENTS.

Jeffrey L. Pressman's & Aaron Wildavsky's Implementation (Berkeley: U of California Press, 1973) occupies center stage in the developing literature about policy implementation, in part because of the analogy they drew between implementation processes & the multiplicative model from probability theory. The relevance of probability theory is taken further here by considering the additive model from probability theory & conditional probabilities as well as the multiplicative model. This expanded coverage of probability theorems: (1) leads to markedly increased optimism about the likelihood of successful implementation; (2) encompasses empirically reasonable tactics, eg, persistence, packaging of clearances, engineering bandwagons, & policy reduction; & (3) generates advice to hopeful implementers -- some of it nonobvious. 9 Tables, 19 References. HA.